General aspects

---

Conference: Forum 1: World Food Supply: Contributions: Posted Contributions: General aspects

---

  By Sumer Hasimogu, Ph.D. habil on Monday, December 27, 1999:

2453 Rockhurst Rd.
Salina, KS 67401 USA
Tel.: (785) 823 5285 or 8271273
Fax: (785) 823 5285
E-mail- [email protected]

December, 26 1999

Contribution to animal production and world food supply.

I believe, all of the Scientists, organizing, attending or contributing to Sustainable Animal Production Conference are one way or another related to or are an expert on the public food policy implications, research needs, analysis of conceptual and methodological problems, and also are aware of contemporary issues related to the livestock industry. I am writing to you on one of the contentious subject that I have been working on for a long time that I thought might be interest to you or your colleagues which is explained below.

Based upon the work performed by many national and international scientific institutions, the data gathered and evaluated for food production and consumption has traditionally being presented on a "Per Capita" basis. Per Capita is defined as "equal to each individual, per unit of population, for each person". when data is presented on Per Capita basis, the assumption must be made that a 6-month-old baby will produce and consume as much food as a mature person. Almost no one directly challenged the erroneous use of PC use in the scientific world as if it is the only unit that should be used in every aspect of economics evaluation of food consumption and production predictions and detailed anthropometric criteria was always neglected. Last ten years my involvement in collecting, organizing and researching information, I am trying to create awareness of error inherent PC evaluations and attempting to influence the national direction of obtaining precise food consumption and food production projections and considering a nutrition monitoring system that will standardize all nutrition intake reporting done by the various agencies of both developed and developing countries. Recently reedited paper �Per Adult Human Unit(PAHU) versus Per Capita(PC): A new approach in evaluating the production, consumption and distribution of food commodities throughout the world� was in attempt to reduce the error in food consumption and production projections inherent in PC evaluations. PAHU calculation method (Obtained the copyright of the method in 1989) is based on age groups of a given population and the Basal Metabolic Body Rate(BMR) of the age groups(0-75+) which helped to obtain the conversion factors of each age group. Main factor sex effecting BMR and other minor factors were included in the calculations. As it would be observed from enclosed abstract, the calculation of the PAHU of the USA's population indicates that consuming and producing 265 million PC population for the year 1986 was reduced down to 222 million PAHU. Since 31.99 percent of USA population under 20 can not consume as much as standard age group(20-24), we can postulate the possibility of making error that the consumption or production projections are not less that 16.81 percentage unit. We normally can not claim that the red meat or grain consumption of equally populated one developed and one developing countries consumption would be the same because in a developed country the age groups under 20 is 31 percent however calculated value for the developing countries is over 51 percent. On the other hand I would like to emphasize that PC is an indirect procedure that disregards not only the younger but also the older population which contributes more (10.05 percentage unit) to the unintended deleterious assessments than the younger age group(5.81 percentage unit) totaling 15.86 percentage unit.

Certainly, I have no objection using different approaches such as Per Capita, Consumer Unit, Adult Equivalency, age Dependency Ratio, etc., however, the need for a new approach in evaluating and projecting precise measurement, was always felt, and I believe PAHU replaces the word predict with measure. Considering its philosophy and the ethic behind it " Everybody is making the same error why not me does not justify its excuse". However, the call for a new approach should not be taken to mean that these problems arose because individuals violated the common norms of economic rules and regulations. Actually at present, we are trying to find the right answer with the wrong unit. The paper itself had very positive feedbacks from different scientists and I presented the theory of it at ADAS-ASAS Annual Joint Meeting, International Section in Denver, July 28,1998. Practical application of the PAHU (Abstract enclosed) was presented at the Third International Food Data Conference held in July 4-7, 1999, organized by United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome, Italy.

I know that PAHU would serve as a better guideline in planning food supplies and assessing the adequacy of the diets of a given population or target groups and may be used in the fields of economics, productivity and policy evaluations. This new concept could be of interest to you, you colleagues, various policy planning units or international research groups in the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Commerce and Trade and other scientific institutions in your country. I shall be more appreciative for your support in the development of the practical application of this new concept by informing those key desicion making national and international institutions which are showing their efforts towards economic and social progress.


Sincerely,


Sumer Hasimoglu, Ph.D.


PER ADULT HUMAN UNIT(PAHU) VERSUS PER CAPITA(PC) APPROACH FOR EVALUATION OF FOOD COMMODITIES

Sumer Hasimoglu, Ph.D.
Continental Analytical Services Inc., 2453 Rockhurst Rd., Salina, KS 67401 U.S.A.
Tel.:(785) 823 5285 or 825 7237; Fax:(785) 823 5285 or 823 7830
E-Mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to reduce the errors inherent in PC projections for grain and red meat consumptions by using PAHU. Calculation methods of the PAHU and conversion factors for each age group are presented. The calculation of USA's PAHU showed that consuming or producing 239 and 265 million PCs were reduced to standardized199 and 222 million PAHU for the years 1985 and 1986 respectiveley, a difference of 16.2 percentage units (PU). Breakdown of equally populated developed and developing countries showed a 21.76 PU difference between the populations of under 20-year-olds. On PC basis, the world average (29.6 kg/PC), equally populated Sweeden and Zambia's annual red meat requirements would be the same (262,000 tons). However, on the PAHU basis requirements, calculations were 218 and 193 thousand tons with PU deviations of PAHU red meat consumption from PC were 12.0 and 36.8 for Sweden and Zambia respectively. Similar differences were found in grain consumption. PC is an indirect procedure that disregards not only the younger but also the older population. Applications of PAHU improved the data validation process by providing an alternative to the current "one size- fits-all"(PC) accept or reject approach. In conclusion, PC estimates of grain and red meat projections can result in unintended deleterious assessments with a difference of not less than 15.86 PU compared to PAHU.

The need for a new approach in evaluating and projecting the different foodrequirements, especially for the developing countries where malnutrition is very common, was always felt. However knowingly insisting on unintended error coming from PC approach does not justify statistically tested results of the food consumption and production projections. Considering its philosophy and the ethic behind it "Everybody is making the same error why not me" does not justify its excuse. However, the call for a new approach should not be taken to mean that these problems arose because individuals violated common norms of economic rules and regulations. We can make problem seem better or worse by applying misleading standards and PC is one of them. Failure to efficiently and adequately address this issue will lead to deficiency in continued food policy planning and precise future commodity production and consumption predictions. Actually at present, we are trying to find the right answer with the wrong unit(PER CAPITA)

Copyright for the method c by the Author, 1989. Allrights reserved.


Brief Biography of Sumer Hasimoglu:

Sumer was born in Turkey. He received his education both in Turkey and the U.S.A. After completing his M.S. and Ph.D. in Ruminant Nutrition from the University of Nebraska, he went back and taught and conducted research on the livestock production problems of Eastern Anatolia at the University of Ataturk in Erzurum, Turkey as an Associate Professor. Later, worked for UNFAO and was assigned as an Adviser at Sind Agriculture University, Tando Jam, Pakistan, established a Research Coordinating Unit, adviced, and made publications for the improvement of the agricultural education. Later, he was awarded by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation Research Fellowship by German Government, and conducted research at George - August University, Goettingen and Hohenheim University, Stuttgart, Germany. He took two more assignments from FAO as Senior Consultant and evaluated the Livestock, Feed and Food Production of Pakistan. Established a Commercial Feedlot Research Section for a Consultancy Company in Salina, Kansas, USA. At present, Sumer is working as Group Leader- Environmental Analytical Chemist at Continental Analytical Services in Salina, Kansas, U.S.A. last 10 years. He has more than 85 publications including two books.